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Port Orchard Comp Plan Existing Conditions Report 2023-08-07Port Orchard 2024 Comprehensive Plan Existing Conditions Report Executive Summary This report sets the background framework for the 2044 periodic update of Port Orchard's comprehensive plan by presenting baseline data on the City's population, demographics, households, housing stock, economy, and planning targets. This executive summary section presents key findings from each of the sections in this report, with further details, charts, graphs, data sources, and discussion found subsequently in the full report. Population & Demographics • Port Orchard is a rapidly growing city, with population growth rates in recent decades exceeding those of the county and state due to annexation, in -migration, and natural population growth. • The city has a diversity of built environments and densities ranging from older buildings downtown to corridor commercial development and modern apartments along Sidney Ave. and more dispersed single-family new construction in McCormick Woods. • Port Orchard's population is younger and more diverse than regional averages, with lower levels of educational attainment than the county and state. • The Kitsap County Jail, located in Port Orchard, contained 411 inmates as of the 2020 Census, and there were an additional 146 residents in group quarters outside of the jail. The OFM estimates the 2023 number of group quarters residents at 694, or 3.9 percent of the city's population. Households • Port Orchard has a similar household size to the county and state, and there are a large number of households with children in the city, including single parent households. • There is a mismatch between household size and housing unit size, with a larger share of smaller households than smaller units, which can impact housing choice. • About 39 percent of Port Orchard households are renters. Renters in the city earn considerably less than homeowners and have different household size needs. • Port Orchard incomes have increased over the past decade but have not kept pace with county and statewide incomes in recent years. There is a higher share of low-income households and a smaller share of middle -income households in the city, and incomes are not distributed evenly around Port Orchard. Housing Stock and Affordability • Vacancy rates in Port Orchard decreased significantly between 2015 and 2021 but have since rebounded due to increased multifamily housing production. • Most housing in Port Orchard is in single-family homes and apartment complexes, with relatively little "middle housing." The city's housing stock is relatively new, with over half of the housing in the city built since 1990. • The high rate of housing production and permitting is continuing in Port Orchard, with over 5,000 units in the permitting or production pipeline. • Most recent single-family construction has been in new subdivisions in McCormick Woods and the Bethel- Sedgwick area. Recent and forthcoming apartment projects have been more evenly spread throughout the city. Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 Page 1 Port Orchard incomes have stagnated in recent years. Ownership housing prices have continued to increase, making it more difficult for residents to purchase housing, but rental prices have begun to decrease in 2022, due to the large amount of multifamily construction in the city. A household earning the median income in Port Orchard would not be able to afford the median home sales price in the city as of 2021. Although incomes and housing prices vary across the city, this indicates high demand for housing overall. About a third of low- and moderate -income Port Orchard households are cost -burdened, paying more than 30 percent of their income on housing costs. Many of the lowest -income households in the city are paying more than half their income in housing costs. Economy • Port Orchard's economy is dominated by the service and retail sectors, as well as government jobs. The city has smaller shares of the types of information and technology jobs prevalent in the greater Puget Sound region. • Port Orchard experiences a net inflow of commuters, primarily from Bremerton and nearby areas. The primary commuting destinations for Port Orchard residents are Seattle and Bremerton. Many of the city's retail, health care, and public employees commute from elsewhere. • Government, hospitality, and retail are expected to see significant regional growth in the coming decades. There is also forecast growth in some sectors which are less represented in Port Orchard's employment landscape, including professional and business services. • The proximity to Naval Base Kitsap in Bremerton results in a large number of military employees, both enlisted and civilian, who likely live in Port Orchard. These residents have unique economic situations, such as receiving military housing stipends. Anecdotal reports also suggest military employees move in and out of the city more frequently than other residents as work demands shift. • There has been considerably less commercial development than residential development in the city in over the past decade. Population and Job Targets If past development trends continue, Port Orchard could see a 2044 population of 26,972, slightly exceeding the planning target of 26,087. This suggests the city should plan for infrastructure in excess of that which would be needed over the next 20 years. A continuation of the historic rate of employment growth in the city does not reach the full 2044 employment allocation of 13,962. If the job growth rate over the last decade continues, the city could expect to see a total of 11,898 jobs by 2044. However, the city is required to plan for the full amount of the job allocation. Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 Page 2 Overview and Zoning This report sets the background framework for the 2044 periodic update of Port Orchard's comprehensive plan by presenting baseline data on the City's population, demographics, households, housing stock, economy, and planning targets. Current trends, future projections, and key takeaways for various elements of the Comprehensive Plan are discussed, and the report establishes common baseline data which will inform the various elements of the Comprehensive Plan. This information is drawn from a variety of sources, primarily the 2020 American Community Survey (ACS) conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, as well as City permitting data, Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) and Census employment data, U.S. Bureau of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) housing data, and real estate data from Costar and Redfin. The map below in Figure 1 shows Port Orchard's current City and Urban Growth Area (UGA) boundaries. Per state law (RCW 36.70A.110), UGAs are intended to provide land supply for 20 years of projected growth, and the area outside UGAs should accommodate growth "only if it is not urban in nature." Much of the southwestern area of Port Orchard, the McCormick Woods area, was annexed in the 2000s. As of 2023, the total size of the city, including right-of-way and water, is 7,175 acres, with another 3,095 acres outside the city but within the UGA. Figure 1. Port Orchard Boundaries Port Orchard City Limits and UGA, 2023 Navy Yard City 41­iaa,i,iel a� a �P m y �P4 ST � tt �e t � -SF'` SE MILEHILL-DR SE MILE HILL DR - V Z `oN E 1 ' SE SALMONBERRY RD SW BERRY LAKE RD -W p Legend Sll ��EDGWICK RD A i 0 Port Orchard City Limits r F 7J Port Orchard LIGA Roads-- W — State Highway Bethel - - Collector / Arterial Local Road sw LIDER RD \\ m o V Water Bodies se uoe 0 0 0,5 1 mi /t �tioRr a I I i Source.Kitsop County, City orport Orchard, LCG The map below in Figure 2 shows the zoning in Port Orchard as of June 2023. Port Orchard's residential zones increase in density from R1 to R4, with R1 allowing detached houses and cottage courts, R2 adding duplexes and townhomes, R3 adding apartments, and R4 allowing only apartments, townhomes and fourplexes. R6 allows detached houses, cottage courts, and duplexes. The R5 zone is not currently mapped. The mixed -use zones (NMU, BPMU, CMU, DMU, and GMU) allow a variety of commercial uses ranging from medical to retail and residential uses ranging from detached and attached single-family units to apartments and live/work uses. The commercial zones focus on more auto -oriented commercial Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 Page 3 uses, particularly in the CH zone. The city has two industrial districts: IF focuses on light industrial, commercial and residential whereas LI is geared towards manufacturing and similar uses. There is also a HI district in the code which is not currently mapped. Other zones include the Cl zone for schools and religious facilities, PF for city offices and similar uses, and PR for parks. There is also a Greenbelt zone which is intended to protect natural resources and critical areas and allows only very sparse development. The full zoning code can be found in Port Orchard Municipal Code (POMC) Title 20, and a comprehensive review of residential zoning can be found in the Housing Action Plan (HAP) Existing Conditions and Housing Needs Analysis Report, adopted in June 2023. A table of parcel acreage by zone, excluding right-of-way and water, is also shown below in Figure 2. Figure 2. Port Orchard Zoning Map and Parcel Acreage by Zone Port Orchard Zoning, 2023 Legend Q Port Orchard City Limits =_j Per Orchard UGA Water Bodies Zone Greenbelt (GB) Residential 1 (Rt) Residential 2 (1 Residential 3 (R3) Residential 4 (1 Residential 6 (1 Neighborhood Mixed Use (Ni Business Prof. Mixed Use (BPMU) Commercial Mixed Use (CMU) Downtown Mixed Use (DMU) ®0 Gateway Mixed Use (GMU) Commercial Corridor (CC) Commercial Heavy (CH) Industrial Flex (IF) Light Industrial (U) - Civic and Institutional (CI) Parks and Recreation (PR) Public Facilfties (PF) Roads — State Highway Collector / Arterial Local Road ID j — Wi 3—Y LAKE RD�t Ru J � J Y. �I � swu❑ERao 0 i -MILE. HILL EIN G F / z/ r` 4 ; SFSAL.'Er itYRD Bethel Ifi �I N lmi, SE LIDER'p 1 I LI, Source: Kitson County, City of Parr Orchard, LCG Zone Acres GB 503.4 R1 311.9 R2 2,068.2 R3 1,047.9 R4 123.6 R6 321.1 NMU 17.1 BPMU 51.9 CMU 336.2 DMU 48.2 GMU 35.1 CC 189.6 CH 162.3 IF 7.6 LI 137.6 Cl 113.8 PR 134.1 PF 280.6 Total 5,894.5 Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 Page 4 Population & Demographics Population Trends Port Orchard's population in 2020 was 15,587 according to the U.S. Census. The Washington Office of Financial Management (OFM) 2023 population estimate for the city is 17,480. The Kitsap County Jail, located in Port Orchard, contained 411 inmates as of the 2020 Census, and there were an addition 146 residents in group quarters outside of the jail. The OFM estimates the 2023 number of group quarters residents at 694, or 3.9 percent of the city's population. Figure 3 shows the city's population trends since 1960 along with average annual growth rates by decade. The rate of population increase slowed down from the 1970s-1990s, but picked up significantly in the 2000s and 2010s, partially due to annexation. Since 2000 the city has grown on average 4.0 percent annually, a total increase of 10,522 residents. Figure 3. Port Orchard Population and Growth Rate, 1960-2020 20,OC 6% i Population 15,000 c O 10,000 Q 0 a 5,000 0 — GI:Ii�G1rI�i�iZsI@ i rl�1011�,ii�:?t 5% 1% 0% Source: Washington Office of Financial Management, U.S. Census Bureau, LCG As shown below in Figure 4, Port Orchard's population has significantly outpaced county and statewide averages over the past two decades. The city's population is now more than four times larger than in 1960. The City annexed a large amount of acreage between 2010 and 2020, which contributed to the comparatively rapid population growth in the 2010s. During this period, the City annexed 1,400 acres comprising 515 parcels. Together, the newly annexed areas make up 19.5% of Port Orchard's total acreage. Without granular population numbers at a parcel level, it is difficult to assess exactly how many new residents are represented by this area, but these annexations have certainly affected the rapid growth rates seen over the past 20 years. Future population targets are discussed below under "Population and Job Targets" on page 27. Figure 4. Port Orchard Population Change 1960-2020 with Regional Comparisons 500% 400% 300% 200% 100% 0% u my Iton 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: Washington Office of Financial Management, U.S. Census Bureau, LCG Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 Page 5 Population density varies across Port Orchard geographically. As shown below in Figure 5, densities range from 1 to over 10 people per square mile across the city's Census Block Groups. Downtown and the Tremont and Sidney Ave areas have the highest population densities, with older development patterns downtown and apartment development along Sidney. On the other hand, Ruby Creek, Clifton Park, and McCormick Woods have the lowest population densities, reflecting more dispersed single-family development patterns, areas with more commercial or industrial rather than residential development, and areas which are not fully built -out. Figure 5. Population Density in Port Orchard Port Orchard Population Density, 2021 Bremerton aE-FP\RJ ALLEY RD Legend I—] Port Orchard City Limits __ j Port Orchard UGA Roads — State Highway — Collector/Arterial Local Road Water Bodies Population per Square Mile (by Census Block Group) Q 0-1 1 - 2.5 2.5-5 5-10 10+ 0 OS mi /t I I I Age and Gender QGorst 0y0 .�irnaui�la.°t City h Qy ST � i Q 6 3 � � x o O� y �F �G qVE a SW BERRY LAKE RD j _j H� 0 n4 /� m O —SF MILEHILL---DR F� `� I Bethel r w fR pD �yI SE LIDFRQq 1 Source., US Census 2027 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, Kitsap County, LCG The population of Port Orchard is notably younger than regional and statewide averages. Over half of Port Orchard residents are under 34 years old, and the share of children under 19 has grown since 2010, as shown below in Figure 6. There is a particularly small share of residents aged 45 to 54 in the city, but an increasing share of people aged 35-44. Overall, the younger population suggests the possibility of increased natural population growth due to the large share of residents in their 20s and 30s, as well as the potential for a robust workforce in the city. There will also be a continued need for schools in the City to serve the large number of children and young residents. Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 Page 6 Figure 6. Age Distribution in Port Orchard with Regional Comparisons, 2020-2021 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 14% M Port Orchard (2010) Port Orchard (2021) Kitsap County 14% Washington Source: American Community Survey 20215-Year Estimates, Table DP05, 2010 Decennial Census, Table P72 Race & Ethnicity The racial and ethnic makeup of Port Orchard is shown at right in Figure 7. The city's residents are about two-thirds white, with significant shares of Hispanic/Latino (13 percent) and Asian (5 percent) populations. Following trends seen throughout the county in recent Census surveys, a notable share of the population identifies as mixed -race, at 8 percent. The city is more diverse than Kitsap County as a whole, which has about 25 percent BIPOC (Black, Indigenous, People of Color) residents, compared to slightly over 30 percent in Port Orchard. The city's Hispanic/Latino population is larger than the county and regional average. According to the ACS, about 2.5 percent of Port Orchard residents, or 351 residents, speak Spanish at home. Some of Port Orchard's neighborhoods are more diverse than others, particularly Downtown, Bethel-Sedgewick, and the area along Sidney Ave., as shown below in Figure 8. ■ 65 and older ■55to64 ■ 45 to 54 ■35to44 ■ 20 to 34 ■ 19 and younger Figure 7. Race & Ethnicity in Port Orchard, 2021 Two or More Native Hawaiian Races American Ind / Alaska Nati 1% Black / Africa American 2% 69% Source. American Community Survey 2027 5-Year Estimates, Table DP05 Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 Page 7 Figure 8. Race and Ethnicity by Census Block Group Port Orchard Race and Ethnicity, 2021 3remerton �El4P,R�pLLLY Rp Legend Q Port Orchard City Limits Port Orchard UGA Roads — State Highway — Collector/Arterial Local Road Water Bodies Share of BIPOC Population (by Census Block Group) 0 5-10% E=] 10-20% Q 20-30% - 30-40% - 40%i 0 0.5 1 m /t I I [�, Educational Attainment r __d = �� I �6ethel N 16 t SW LIVER R° ,�rl SE LI°EAe� 1 Source. US Census 2021 American Cammuntty Survey 5-Year Estimates, Kitsup County LCG Port Orchard residents have slightly lower levels of educational attainment than the county and the state, as shown in Figure 9 below. Overall, 32 percent of residents have a bachelor's degree or higher, compared with 35 percent countywide and 37 percent across Washington. This reflects Port Orchard's more "blue collar' employment landscape, detailed below under "Economy" on Page 23. Figure 9. Educational Attainment in Port Orchard with Regional Comparisons, 2021 100% 90% 80% ° ■ Graduate or Professional Degree 70 /° 60% 900■ Bachelor's Degree 50% ■ Associate's Degree 40% A ■ Some College 30% ■ High School 20% '% ■ Less than High School 10% ' 0% �' Port Orchard Kitsap County Washington Source: American Community Survey 20215-Year Estimates, Table DP05 Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 Page 8 Key Takeaways • Port Orchard is a rapidly growing city, with population growth rates in recent decades exceeding those of the county and state due to annexation, in -migration, and natural population growth. • The city has a diversity of built environments and densities ranging from older buildings downtown to corridor commercial development and modern apartments along Sidney Ave. and more dispersed single-family new construction in McCormick Woods. • Port Orchard's population is younger and more diverse than regional averages, with lower levels of educational attainment than the county and state. Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 Page 9 Households In Port Orchard, there are 5,886 occupied housing units as of the 2021 ACS. The U.S. Census Bureau considers each unit to be occupied by one "household," comprised of any combination of related family members, unrelated people, or individuals. Type & Size Figure 10 shows Port Orchard's household type breakdown. There are 3,724 married or cohabitating couple households in Port Orchard, about 63 percent of households. Of these, nearly half, or 1,708 households, have children. There are 2,162 households which have a single person householder. This includes people living alone and single parents. Of these single - parent households, 443 households have children and most of those are single mothers. This is a higher share of single - parent households than the county and the state. In addition, 543 of the single -person households in Port Orchard are householders over age 65 living alone. Overall, according to the Washington OFM, Port Orchard's average household size is 2.56 people, slightly higher than the county average of 2.53 and similar to the statewide average of 2.55. Figure 10. Household Type in Port Orchard, 2021 Port Orchard Kitsap County Households Share Households Share Total Households 5,886 100% 104,977 100% Married or cohabitating couple household 3,724 63% 64,160 61% With children under 18 7,708 29% 22,220 21 % Male householder, no spouse/partner 856 15% 18,368 17% With children under 18 84 1 % 7,506 1 % Householder living alone 547 9% 12,407 12% 65 years and over 136 2% 3,780 4% Female householder, no spouse/partner 1,306 22% 22,449 21% With children under 18 359 6% 3,880 4% Householder living alone 760 73% 73,000 72% 65 years and over 407 7916 7,322 7916 Total Households with Children 2,372 40% 31,107 30% Total Householders over 65 living alone 543 9% 11,102 11% Source: American Community Survey 20215-Year Estimates, Table DP02 Over half of Port Orchard's households are made up of one or two people. On the other hand, 25 percent of housing units are studios, one -bedroom or two -bedroom units, as shown below in Figure 11. Although smaller households may choose to live in larger units, this mismatch between household size and housing unit size can have negative implications for housing affordability if smaller households are not able to find units suitable to their needs and budgets. Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 Page 10 Figure 11. Household Size and Housing Unit Size in Port Orchard, 2021 Housenold Size 4+ per— housO 26°r 3-persor househol, 17% 1-nPrson hold rson hold 35% Housing Unit Size 4+ Studio / 1 Of herirnnm bedre 42% Source: American Community Survey 2027 5-Year Estimates, Tables DP04, S2507 Tenure s The majority of Port Orchard's households are ownership households, although a sizeable 39 percent are renters, higher than county and statewide averages. Renters can face increased housing instability due to evictions and rent increases not faced by homeowners. In addition, renters are more likely to be BIPOC and lower -income households, compounding the effects of these housing challenges. According to the 2021 ACS, 88 percent of ownership households in Port Orchard have a householder who identifies as White, compared with 72 percent of renter households. Additionally, as discussed further under "Income" below, renters in Port Orchard earn less than homeowners, with a median household income for renter households of $47,785 in 2021 compared to $101,318 for ownership households. Figure 12. Tenure in Port Orchard with Regional Comparisons, 2021 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Port Orchard Kitsap County Source: American Community Survey 2027 5-Year Estimates, Table DP05 Washington ■ Renter -occupied ■ Owner -occupied Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 Page 11 Port Orchard's renter households are also distributed unevenly by household size. Figure 13 shows this breakdown, with one- and three -person households evenly divided between renters and owners. Two -person households are the most common size of household overall and are skewed slightly towards owners, whereas large households of over four people are much more likely to be ownership households. This has implications for unit size, since many rental units tend to have fewer bedrooms than ownership units, but in Port Orchard there seems to be a demand for rental units for 3-person as well as one- and two -person households. Figure 13. Port Orchard Household Size by Tenure, 2021 4-or-more-person household 3-person household E 2-person household 1-person household 0 500 1,000 1,500 Source: American Community Survey 20215-Year Estimates, Table DP05 Income ■ Ownership Households ■ Renter Households 2,000 2,500 Port Orchard incomes have increased steadily over the past decade, as shown below in Figure 14. Incomes in the city were keeping pace with county and statewide averages throughout the mid-2010s but have fallen behind in the past several years as regional incomes have grown even more quickly since the COVID-19 pandemic. Figure 14. Port Orchard Median Household Income with Regional Comparisons, 2010-2021 $90,000 $85,000 $80,000 $75,000 $70,000 $65,000 $60,000 $55,000 $50,000 Kitsap County 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: American Community Survey 20215-Year Estimates, Table S2503 Washington Port Orchard Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 Page 12 A breakdown of income bands in the city and county shows more detail about the variety of household incomes in Port Orchard, as shown below in Figure 15. Compared with the county, Port Orchard has a higher share of very low-income households earning under $10,000 per year and a smaller share of upper middle -income households earning $50,000 to $100,000 per year, though there are also a significant amount of high -income earners in the city, with roughly a third of Port Orchard households earning over $100,000 per year. Figure 15. Port Orchard and Kitsap County Income Distribution, 2021 16% 14% 12% ■ Port Orchard 10% OKitsap County 8% .6% 4% 2% 0% ,L O Ln �n ,L CDul Ln O rn O Un O N M M b4 to to b4 b4 ta4 b4 V O O Ln CDLn O N N M M 17 b2 kfi 41q b4 b4 {{} b4 Y ,L Y Y -lL ,L OLn CD l0 r- O N O b4 to b4 b4 tA -11 O O Y __\z _sz Ln Q0 U1 O Ln O tq to Il- b9 O N Ln b4 b4 Source: American Community Survey 2027 5-Year Estimates, Table 819007 A different picture emerges when considering incomes broken down by renter and ownership households, as shown below in Figure 16: renters in the city earn considerably less than homeowners, and renters in Port Orchard have seen only a 28 percent increase in incomes between 2010 and 2021, compared to a 58 percent increase in incomes of ownership households. Rental households' lower incomes and slower income growth compared with ownership households raises concerns over the ability of renters to keep up with rising housing costs or to move into homeownership, particularly given that wealthier ownership households may be able to pay more for housing. Figure 16. Median Household Income by Tenure in Port Orchard, 2010-21 $75,766 $50,275 All Households $101,318 $64,068 0 Ownership Households Source: American Community Survey 2027 5-Year estimates, Table S2503 ■ 2010 ■ 2021 $47,785 $37,351 M I Renter Households Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 Page 13 Figure 17 shows incomes in Port Orchard geographically by Census block group. Incomes are not distributed evenly around the city, with McCormick Woods and areas west of Downtown showing the highest income levels, whereas the Bethel and Mile Hill areas show the lowest household incomes. Figure 17. Incomes by Census Block Group in Port Orchard, 2021 Port Orchard Median Household Income, 2021 Bremerton � `F P`¢�ALLEY Rp M Gorst Legend Q Part Orchard City Limits - Part Orchard UGA Roads State Highway Collector / Arterial LacalRoad Water Bodies MHI $35k-$50k 0 $50k - $65k 0 $65k - $80k $BOk - $95k - $95k + 0 0.5 1 mi n I Ah Key Takeaways Navy Yard City yh �P 6 L SW BERRY LAKE RD W 0 -VE r Bethel � o \ � m , SW LIDER ID \ i �r sE uoeR� Source. US Censu52027 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, Kitsap County, LCG • Port Orchard has a similar household size to the county and state, and there are a large number of households with children in the city, including single parent households. • There is a mismatch between household size and housing unit size, with a larger share of smaller households than smaller units, which can impact housing choice. • About 39 percent of Port Orchard households are renters. Renters in the city earn considerably less than homeowners and have different household size needs. • Port Orchard incomes have increased over the past decade but have not kept pace with county and statewide incomes in recent years. There is a higher share of very low income households and a smaller share of middle - income households in the city, and incomes are not distributed evenly around Port Orchard. Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 Page 14 Housing Stock and Affordability Housing Units and Vacancy As of 2021, there were 6,165 total housing units in Port Orchard, of which 5,886 were occupied. The other 279 were vacant. Since this latest Census data, the city has seen a significant amount of multifamily construction, discussed further below under "Production" on page 18. Vacancy rates for both renters and homeowners decreased in Port Orchard from the mid-2010s until recently as housing demand and prices increased. Vacancy rates as reported by the Census Bureau's American Community Survey through 2021 are shown below in Figure 18. Figure 18. ACS Reported Vacancy Rates in Port Orchard, 2010-2021 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: American Community Survey 2027 5-Year estimates, Table DP04 Census -reported vacancy rates were reported as 1.8 percent for ownership properties and 2.0 percent for rental properties as of 2021.). However, the large amount of multifamily production seen since 2021 has had a noticeable effect on vacancy rates as shown below in Figure 19, which shows vacancy rates for multifamily properties of 5 units or more in the city, as reported by Costar, a leading commercial real estate data provider. Since early 2021, the overall vacancy rate has spiked at over 14 percent and is currently around 11 percent as of July 2023. The "stabilized vacancy rate", which smooths rapid increases in vacancy resulting from new inventory being added to the market, is currently at 7.7 percent. This brings vacancy rates back within or sightly above the range generally considered healthy in the housing market, around 5-6 percent. Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 Page 15 Figure 19. CoStar Reported Multifamily Vacancy in Port Orchard, 2013-2023 Overall Vacancy ` 11.449% • .W • Stabilized Vacancy 7.651% 2% — 0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Source: Costar Type & Age The majority of Port Orchard's housing stock, about 70 percent, is in single -unit buildings, nearly all of which are detached single-family homes, plus a small number of attached townhomes. There is a much smaller amount of "middle housing" of 2-4 units, and a large share of the city's housing stock is in larger apartment buildings, at 22 percent. The remaining three percent are manufactured homes. The breakdown of housing unit type is shown below in Figure 20. Port Orchard's housing stock is considerably newer than regional averages, as shown below in Figure 21. Twice as much of Port Orchard's housing was built since 2010 than the share of countywide housing built in the same period. Over half of the housing stock was built since 1990, and two-thirds was built since 1980. This reflects the very active housing development seen in the McCormick Woods area since it transitioned from forest land to housing and later was annexed by the City. Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 Page 16 Figure 20. Housing Unit Type in Port Orchard, 2021 Manufactured 5+ 3-4 Units 4% 2-Uni 1% lit Yo Source: American Community Survey 20215-Year estimates, Table DP04 Figure 21. Age of Housing in Port Orchard and Kitsap County, 2021 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Port Orchard Kitsap County Source: American Community Survey 2027 5-Year estimates, Table DP04 ■ 2010-2021 ■ 2000-2009 ■ 1990-1999 ■ 1980-1989 ■ 1970-1979 ■ 1960-1969 ■ 1950-1959 ■ 1940-1949 ■ 1939 or earlier Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 Page 17 Production Port Orchard has been producing housing very rapidly in recent decades. Figure 22 shows a breakdown of new permits issued by housing type over the past 40 years. Note that this data shows permits which were issued, and not all of these projects were or will necessarily be completed. However, it does give an indication of important trends, including a recent uptick in permitting and a lack of multifamily construction in the early 2000s which has restarted more recently. It also shows the prevalence of single-family and larger apartment development in Port Orchard, compared with the small number of permitted 2-4 unit building types. Figure 22. Permits Issued in Port Orchard by Unit Type, 1982-2022 .�1 500 400 a 300 0 iv 200 E Z) WWI 0 ■ 5+ Unit Multifamily ■ Triplex / 4-Plex ■ Duplex fi �I:�i E:I:�I:�:�i GI:I:i ��I�i ���> r��I:��I:�iZ�Z�i�iI��iI�L i�iI�L3�iI�Y3�iS [iZ�iy f��ZiS L i�iS [:i�iS E:�iL►�iZ�i� Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) State of the Cities Database (SOCDS) City permit data indicates over 5,000 units currently in the permitting pipeline at some stage, as shown below in Figure 23. The majority of these are single-family units and apartments, although there are several developments which incorporate both detached and attached units as well as some units in mixed -use projects forthcoming in 2023 and beyond, showing some increasing housing diversity in the city. Figure 23. Recent and Forthcoming Permit Activity in Port Orchard, 2022-2025+ 3,000 2,500 2,000 .E 1,500 E z 1,000 500 — — 0 2022 2023 2024 Source: City of Port Orchard Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan l Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 ■ Mixed -Use Development ■ 5+ Unit Apartment ■ 4-Plex ■ Townhouse ■ Development including single- family homes and townhomes Single Family Permitting Initiated, Timeline Uncertain Page 18 The map below in Figure 24 shows recent completed single-family and multifamily development in Port Orchard, according to Redfin and Costar data. Most single-family development in the past five years has been part of new subdivisions in McCormick Woods, in the Bethel-Sedgwick area, and in East Port Orchard outside the city limits, with some scattered new construction elsewhere in the city. Apartment construction (as well as forthcoming development shown with dashed borders) has been distributed throughout the city, including several projects in the Mile Hill area and near Bethel and Sedgwick as well as proposed a pa rtm ents/town homes as part of a new project in McCormick Woods. Figure 24. Recent Housing Production in Port Orchard Port Orchard i Residential Development, 2018-2023 Legend ty Port Orchard City Limits eP Port Orchard UGA Roads 1 - State Highway me / o0 0 Collector/Arterial ^� o O MILEH,uuR sEMaiHauDR Local Road - o _ Water Bodies O Single -Family Homes rs Built Since 2018 O 2018 O 2019 2020 2021 1 SESALMONeERRYRD SW BERRY LAKURD - .I 2022 4\ ZO 2023L�oWICI9 RD Multifamily Development 4 Built Since 2018 / Multi -Family i.4 Proposed / Under Construction O a -F 1 Development Size 4j 1 z FTRBA — 2- B�thei1-4 T 500+k SF { o^ SW LIDER RD r 10k �SELIDER,P © m 0,5 I I Al i� s� Source Kitsap County, Redfin, Costar, LCG ' Cost & Affordability Port Orchard has traditionally been considered a relatively affordable city compared to the region. Considering the relationship between rents, home prices, and household incomes shown below in Figure 25, Port Orchard was relatively affordable throughout most of the 2010s, with increases in rents and home prices overall matching increases in household incomes. However, incomes have stagnated since 2018, and both rents and home values increased dramatically between 2019 and 2021. Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 Page 19 Figure 25. Change in Rent, Home Value, and Income in Port Orchard, 2010-2021 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: American Community Survey 20215-Year Estimates, Table S2503, DP04, Zillow More recent rent trends in multifamily projects of 5 or more units tracked by Costar indicate that the large amount of multifamily construction in the city seen in the past two years is beginning to mitigate rent prices, as shown below in Figure 26. Recent ownership housing data does not show a similar pattern, however. Nonetheless, this data does suggest that the continued rapid rate of rental housing in the city is helping to keep rents more affordable to a wider variety of income levels. Figure 26. Average Multifamily Rent Per Unit, 2013-2023 $1,800 2022 Q2 $1,700 $1,675 $1,600 $1,500 2023 Q3 QTD, $1,400 $1,597 $1,300 0000 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Source: Costar Figure 27 shows the current relationship between housing prices and household incomes in Port Orchard. The average household earning the 2021 median income of $75,766 would be able to afford a home worth about $310,000. However, the median sales price in 2021 was $468,000, a full $158,000 higher. In order to afford that home at the median sales price, a household would need to earn about $114,000, nearly $40,000 more than the median household Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 Page 20 income. The chart also shows a variety of household incomes and the housing price which would be affordable to each income level, since Port Orchard residents vary significantly in income levels as discussed above under "Households." The gap between median income and median housing sales price indicates an overall market with high demand for housing and in which many households may not be able to afford to purchase a home or may have more difficulty doing so. Figure 27. Housing Affordability at Various Price and Income Levels in Port Orchard, 2021 $900 ■ Household Income ($1,000s) $800 ■ House Price ($1,000s) $700 $600 Median Sales Price ($468) $500 $400 $300 Median Household $202 $200 Income ($75) $101 $100 ' $25 A household earning $100,000 could not afford the median Port Orchard sales price of $468,000 even though they are earning nearly $30,000 more than the median household income. $607 $405 $304 $200 $150 $75 : $100 - 0 Source: American Community Survey 20215-Year Estimates, Table S2503, Zillow, Freddie Mac, LCG $810 In addition to income, HUD uses a measurement of "cost burden" to further determine which subset of a community's residents are most in need of housing support or most at risk of displacement or housing hardship. A household is considered to be "cost -burdened" if they are spending more than 30% of monthly income on housing costs (including rent/mortgage and utilities). A "severely cost -burdened" household spends more than 50% of their monthly income on housing costs. Figure 28 below shows the most recent HUD data on Port Orchard's cost -burdened households by income level based on percentage of HUD Area Median Income, which was $85,500 in 2019. The lowest -income households (earning less than 30 percent of AMI) are overwhelmingly cost -burdened, with nearly 500 of the 715 households in this category spending more than half their income on housing costs. More than half of households earning up to 80 percent AMI are also cost -burdened or severely cost -burdened, and about a quarter of households earning 80-100 percent AMI are also paying more than 30 percent of their income on housing costs. In total, 1,670 low- and moderate -income households, or 32 percent of Port Orchard's households, are facing cost burden, and these households are likely the most in need of subsidized affordable housing in the city. Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 Page 21 Figure 28. Cost -Burdened Low -Income Households by Income Bracket in Port Orchard, 2019 ■ Severely Cost Burdened Cost Burdened Not Cost Burdened 80-100% AM I 0 � 50-80%AMI a� E 0 V C 0 30-50% AMI Z3 0 < 30% AMI , 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Number of Households Source: 2075-2079 HUD Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS) Key Takeaways • Vacancy rates in Port Orchard decreased significantly between 2015 and 2021 but have since rebounded due to increased multifamily housing production. • Most housing in Port Orchard is in single-family homes and apartment complexes, with relatively little "middle housing." The city's housing stock is relatively new, with over half of the housing in the city built since 1990. • The high rate of housing production and permitting is continuing in Port Orchard, with over 5,000 units in the permitting or production pipeline. • Most recent single-family construction has been in new subdivisions in McCormick Woods and the Bethel- Sedgwick area. Recent and forthcoming apartment projects have been more evenly spread throughout the city. • Port Orchard incomes have stagnated in recent years. Ownership housing prices have continued to increase, making it more difficult for residents to purchase housing, but rental prices have begun to decrease in 2022-3, due to the large amount of multifamily construction in the city. • A household earning the median income in Port Orchard would not be able to afford the median home sales price in the city as of 2021. Although incomes and housing prices vary across the city, this indicates high demand for housing overall. • About a third of low- and moderate -income Port Orchard households are cost -burdened, paying more than 30 percent of their income on housing costs. Many of the lowest -income households in the city are paying more than half their income in housing costs. Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 Page 22 Economy Employment Figure 29 below shows the latest employment data for workers in Port Orchard. In total, there were 7,722 jobs in the city in 2022, an increase of 56 percent over the past 20 years, or an average increase of 2.2 percent per year. Jobs in the city are dominated by the service and retail sectors, with a significant number of jobs in government as well, due to the presence of Kitsap County administration in the city. Overall, job growth has been primarily confined to the service and retail sectors, with some small growth in construction jobs over the past decade, likely reflecting the large amount of homebuilding going on in the city. Port Orchard has a notably smaller share of technology and information jobs compared to Seattle and other parts of the Puget Sound region. Current estimates as of summer 2023 suggest that up to 25 percent of workdays nationally are worked from home, and this trend has potential implications for the city, particularly if technology and other knowledge industry workers in the region choose to live in Port Orchard due to lower costs of living. The presence of the Bremerton fast ferry also provides an added incentive for commuters to Seattle. Figure 29. Employment by Sector in Port Orchard, 2000-2022 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 111 500 Reta i I Services Government Warehousing,Transport. Education p Finance, Real Estate � on Manufactu 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRQ Covered Employment Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 Page 23 Commuting As shown at right in Figure 30, Port Orchard experiences a net inflow of commuters as of the most recent Census LEHD data in 2020. Employees in the city who commute from elsewhere primarily live in Bremerton (7 percent) and nearby unincorporated communities including Parkwood, East Port Orchard, and Manchester (8.6 percent total). About 2 percent each of Port Orchard employees live in Tacoma, Silverdale, and Seattle. On the other hand, Port Orchard residents' primary commuting destination is Seattle, with about 14 percent of residents working there. Another 12 percent each work in Bremerton and in Port Orchard itself. About 4 percent each work in Tacoma, Silverdale, Gig Harbor, and East Port Orchard. Figure 30. Commuting Patterns in Port Orchard, 2020 4,435 pp - Commuters out of Port Orchard Live and work in Port Orchard Source: US Census Longitudinal Employer Household Dynamics (LEND) via Census OnTheMap Figure 31 shows the breakdown of commuting patterns by job sector. Sectors above the diagonal line have more out - commuters than in -commuters. Since Port Orchard has a net inflow, there are relatively fewjobs in this category, but some more traditionally "white collar' sectors such as Administration, Professional Services, and Finance are in this area. Job sectors under the line have more commuter inflow than outflow. Most notably is the large number of retail employees who commute into the city as well as government employees. Health care is more balanced between in- and out - commuters. Figure 31. Port Orchard Commuting by Sector, 2020 2,000 1,500 -a 0 tf ° 1,000 w J 500 It Administration Professional Education Services — r Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Finance / Insuran Other Services 0 500 Food / Hospitality oe Health Care / Social Assistance Public Administration 1,000 1,500 WORK in Port Orchard Source: U.S. Census Bureau Longitudinal Employer Household Dynamics (LEHD), via Census OnTheMap Retail Trade 2,000 Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 Page 24 Employment Forecasts The Washington Employment Security Department (ESD) publishes medium- and long-term forecasts of employment growth by region. The chart below in Figure 32 shows forecast newjobs by sector in Kitsap, Clallam, and Jefferson Counties through 2030. Many of Port Orchard's prominent sectors, including government, leisure and hospitality, and retail trade, are expected to see significant regional growth in the coming decades, some of which should be captured by Port Orchard. On the other hand, there are also expected to be a significant number of new professional, business, and health carejobs in the region as well, which Port Orchard may wish to consider strategies for attracting. Figure 32. Job Growth Forecast, Olympic Consortium (Kitsap, Clallam, Jefferson Counties), 2020-2030 GOVERNMENT . - OTHER SERVICES � ■ 2020-2025 ■ 2025-2030 LEISURE and HOSPITALITY EDUCATION and HEALTH SERVICES PROFESSIONAL and BUSINESS SERVICES - FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES . INFORMATION . TRANSPORTATION, WAREHOUSING AND UTILITIES ■ RETAIL TRADE . WHOLESALE TRADE . MANUFACTURING ■ CONSTRUCTION . NATURAL RESOURCES and Mining 0 Source: Washington Employment Security Department Military Employment 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Forecast New Jobs A unique characteristic of the Port Orchard population is the presence of military personnel, families, and contractors due to the proximity of the Puget Sound Naval Shipyard in Bremerton. The shipyard is part of Naval Base Kitsap, a large military installation across multiple sites in Kitsap County. The military is a significant contributor to the economy of the region. The installation as a whole has 45,532 employees, including 31,585 military and civilian personnel residing in the same counties.' Average salaries of enlisted personnel were $33,400, plus an annual housing allowance of $12,000 - $25,000, and average salaries of civilian employees were $74,000 as of 2014.1 The military provided countywide data on its ' Naval Base Kitsap. "Naval Base Kitsap Operations and Economic Contributions." http://www2.economicciateway.com/media/userfiles/subsite 197/files/nbk-economic-impact-factsheets.pdf 2 Naval Base Kitsap and Naval Magazine Indian Island Joint Land Use Study, September 2015. Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 Page 25 civilian population for this report, but provided no data on active duty population nor data specific to personnel living in Port Orchard. Census data shows approximately 645 Port Orchard residents, representing 5.5% of the employed population of the city, employed in the Armed Forces overall, with a moderate margin of error.' This likely reflects enlisted personnel rather than civilian employees but provides a general picture of the extent of military employment in the city. The Kitsap Economic Development Alliance notes that the shipyard is anticipated to see significant investment through the Navy's 21-year, $20 billion Shipyard Infrastructure Optimization Program (SIOP), suggesting continued economic and housing impacts in the region.' Commercial Building Stock Port Orchard's commercial building stock is concentrated downtown and along several large arterials including Bethel Ave, Mile Hill Dr, and Sidney Rd, as shown below in Figure 33. The Clifton Industrial Park has a cluster of existing industrial development. Although there is a large amount of retail development in the city, particularly along Bethel, there has been almost no recent nonresidential commercial development in the past five years, aside from a Dutch Brothers Coffee built in 2020 and a new 5,000 square foot industrial building built just outside the city limits in 2022. There is some commercial development in the pipeline, including the new Kitsap Bank headquarters and Port Orchard Community Center & Library, as well as a KFC, Starbucks, and some retail associated with the McCormick Village development. Overall, the city's recent commercial development trends contrast significantly with the large amount of residential development discussed earlier in this report, although it is not surprising given recent trends in commercial development, both office and retail, in recent years and particularly since the COVID-19 pandemic. Many developers nationwide are reticent to build purely commercial buildings, though ground floor retail continues to be built in mixed -use buildings around the Puget Sound. Office development has been essentially negligible in the larger Bremerton market over the past few years, with none under construction.' a 2021 American Community Survey, Table DP03 ° Kitsap EDA. "Kitsap is a Leader in the States and Nation's Defense Industry." https://www.kitsar)eda.org/key-industries/defense s Costar. "Bremerton, WA Office Market Profile" June 2023. Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 Page 26 Figure 33. Commercial Development in Port Orchard / f TIE, Orchard ifE I fI � All Commercial Development Legend [1 !,J_ tyl Q Port Orchard City Limits j j Port Orchard UGA Roads - State Highway 5,000 sq It • Collector/Arterial Industrial Local Road (Built 2022) Water Bodies Development Type19 ws( r� Office - - Health Care Retail Hospitality • Education / Government Industrial , eo o. 40 Self Storage Specialty S ? ` O [Built Since 20181 i_I [Proposed / Under Construction] Development Size Retail at RBA McCormick 500+k SF Village 10k -sw BE RY AKE-Ro J_ r L'VX Dutch �c _o Brothers O Coffee (Built 2020) f6 � T Saurcew Kiisap County, `ostar, LCG - Key Takeaways • Port Orchard's economy is dominated by the service and retail sectors, as well as government jobs. The city has smaller shares of the types of information and technology jobs prevalent in the greater Puget Sound region. • Port Orchard experiences a net inflow of commuters, primarily from Bremerton and nearby areas. The primary commuting destinations for Port Orchard residents are Seattle and Bremerton. Many of the city's retail, health care, and public employees commute from elsewhere. • Government, hospitality, and retail are expected to see significant regional growth in the coming decades. There is also forecast growth in some sectors which are less represented in Port Orchard's employment landscape, including professional and business services. • The proximity to Naval Base Kitsap in Bremerton results in a large number of military employees, both enlisted and civilian, who likely live in Port Orchard. These residents have unique economic situations, such as receiving military housing stipends. Anecdotal reports also suggest military employees move in and out of the city more frequently than other residents as work demands shift. • There has been considerably less commercial development than residential development in the city in over the past decade. Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 Page 27 Population and Job Targets The Washington Office of Financial Management (OFM) and Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) allocate future population and jobs forecasts to counties, which in turn distribute those allocations to individual cities. Cities are responsible for planning to accommodate the level of population, housing, and job growth provided in these countywide allocation targets as part of their comprehensive planning process. This section contains a citywide review of past growth trends in relation to targets. A detailed forecast at smaller geographic levels will be conducted later in the comprehensive planning process to inform transportation and infrastructure planning. Population Port Orchard's 2023 population is 17,480, according to the OFM. The 2044 population allocation for the City is 26,087, according to the most recent Kitsap County Countywide Planning Policies. In order to reach this target, Port Orchard would need to see an average annual increase of 440 residents. Over the past decade, the City has seen an average increase of 452 residents, slightly higher than the rate implied by the Countywide target. Therefore, if past development trends continue, Port Orchard could see a population of 26,972, slightly exceeding the planning target. This suggests the city should plan for infrastructure in excess of that which would be needed over the next 20 years. Figure 34. Port Orchard Historic Population Growth Rate and 2044 Allocation 30,000 25,000 20,000 5,000 Source: OFM, Kitsop County, LCG Population Grows at 26,972 2012-2022 rate ,do • •/ 26,087 do dP ,• �,• Port Orchard I f Population Allocation dp ,i Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 Page 28 Employment Figure 35 below shows the same chart for employment. A continuation of the historic rate of employment growth in the city does not reach the full employment allocation of 13,962. If the job growth rate over the last decade continues, the city could expect to see a total of 11,898 jobs by 2044. However, the city is required to plan for the full amount of the job allocation. Figure 35. Port Orchard Historic Employment Growth Rate and 2044 Allocation 13,9� 14,000 Port Orchard • • Employment Allocation 10 • 12,000 • • 40 • 1\ • . ' 11,898 • 10,000 • • • • . ' ' Jobs Grow at 10- Ln Historic Employment • �� ' year rate 0 8,000 ' 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 OOti 00� 000 00� OHO O�ti O�� OHO O�� OLO OL1 OLD OHO 01R� OHO O,a, Oft. OHO O�� OHO OI ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti Source: PSRC, Kitsap County, LCG Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 Page 29 Glossary of Abbreviations ACS — American Community Survey — A yearly survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau with detailed demographics, employment, income, educational attainment, and other data. AMI — Area Median Income — A HUD measurement of median income in a region used to determine eligibility for subsidized housing programs. CHAS — Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy — A Census -based HUD dataset on the share of household incomes being spent on housing, a metric referred to as "cost burden." HAP — Housing Action Plan, adopted by Port Orchard City Council in 2023. HUD — U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development — The federal government bureau which oversees housing programs and funding. LEHD — Longitudinal Employer -Household Dynamics — A Census dataset that provides spatial employment data. MHI — Median Household Income — The median (average) income for households in a city or region. OFM — Washington Office of Financial Management — The state government bureau which provides population data and forecasts, as well as fiscal services and policy for the state. POMC — Port Orchard Municipal Code PSRC — Puget Sound Regional Council — The planning organization for the greater Puget Sound region comprising King, Pierce, Snohomish and Kitsap Counties. PSRC develops policies and coordinates decisions about regional growth, transportation and economic development planning. TAZ — Transportation Analysis Zone — A small geography used in Transportation Demand Modeling to aggregate origin and destination trips. UGA — Urban Growth Area — Areas outside cities required by Washington's Growth Management Act to allow urban growth over the next 20 years based on population projections, and outside which urban growth should not be allowed. Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I Existing Conditions Report DRAFT v2 Page 30