Appendix I - Port Orchard Land Capacity Analysis Methodology FINAL 20241218Port Orchard 2044 Comprehensive Plan Update
HB1220 Land Capacity Analysis Methodology and Results
Background
As part of Port Orchard's 2044 Comprehensive Plan update, Leland Consulting Group (LCG) was retained as part of a
consultant team led by AHBL to complete an analysis of land capacity for housing, including considerations of housing by
income band and capacity for Emergency Housing, as required by RCW 36.70A.070(2)(c). This memo outlines the
methodology and results of this analysis, using the process outlined in the Washington Department of Commerce's
guidebook "Guidance for Updating Your Housing Element" (August 2023).'
Land Capacity Analysis for Permanent Units by Income Band
Housing Targets
Port Orchard is required to show land capacity to meet 2020-2044 targets for population and housing units based on
the Washington Office of Financial Management countywide projections as allocated tojurisdictions through the
Countywide Planning Policies. Figure 1 below shows Port Orchard's baseline and target housing units and population
through 2044.
Figure 1. Port Orchard Baseline and Target Housing Units and Jobs, 2020-2044
26,087
■ 2020-2044 Net New
i 2020 Baseline
11,152
M1 15,587
6,209
Housing Units Population
Source: Kitsop County Regional Coordinating Council Approved Growth Targets, October 2022
The housing unit baseline and targets are further broken down by what income band those units can serve, expressed as a
percentage of the HUD Area Median Family Income (HAMFI), commonly referred to as the Area Median Income (AMI). For
reference, the 2024 AMI for Kitsap County is $119,700. The AMI is determined by the U.S. Department of Housing and
Urban Development (HUD), and is generally higher than the Census -reported Median Household Income for a given city,
1 https:Hdeptofcommerce.box.com/s/ld9d5l7g509r389fOmjpowh8isipirlh
since it is based on Census -reported median family income, which excludes single -person households. This single AMI
figure represents the income of the average family household in the County, and therefore reflects the average family
household size in the County. The AMI is further broken down by family size and income levels are classified as extremely
low income (under 30% AMI), very low income (30-50% AMI) and low income households (50-80% AMI), as shown in the
table below:
Figure 2. HUD Income Limits for Kitsap County, 2024
1-person
2-person
3-person
4-person
5-person
6-person
Income Limit Category
household
household
household
household
household
household
Extremely Low Income (0-30% AMI)
$ 25,150
$ 28,750
$ 32,350
$ 35,900
$ 38,800
$ 41,960
Very Low Income (30-50% AMI)
$ 41,900
$ 47,900
$ 53,900
$ 59,850
$ 64,650
$ 69,450
Low Income (50-80-% AMI)
$ 67,050
$ 76,600
$ 86,200
$ 95,750
$ 103,450
$ 111,100
Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)
The housing targets for households earning under 30% AMI are broken down into permanent units (i.e. standard housing
units) and permanent supportive housing (PSH), defined in the Department of Commerce guidebook as "subsidized, leased
housing for people who are experiencing homelessness or are at risk of homelessness and living with a disabling condition."
Finally, each jurisdiction receives a housing target for emergency housing, defined in the Department of Commerce
guidebook as "temporary accommodations for households who are experiencing homelessness or are at imminent risk of
becoming homeless." Port Orchard's housing baseline and 2044 targets by income band are shown below:
Figure 3. Port Orchard Existing and Target Housing Units by Income Band, 2019-2044
3,000 PSH Need (2020-2044)
■ Net New Need (2020-2044)
Baseline Supply (2020)
2,500
2,000
1,500 414
1,000
1,24
500
619
0 '
0 to <_ 30% > 30 to <_ 50% > 50 to <_ 80% > 80 to <_ 100% > 100 to <_ 120%
11 _�=
>120% Emergency Housing
Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I HB 1220 Land Capacity Analysis Methodology and Results DRAFT 2024-07-30 Page 2
Source: Kitsop County Regional Coordinating Council Approved Growth Targets, October 2022
Vacant and Redevelopable Parcels and Pending Development
The first step in the land capacity analysis is to determine which parcels could accommodate new development over the 20-
year planning horizon. Port Orchard provided GIS data from their Buildable Lands Report, prepared in 2021, classifying
parcels as vacant, redevelopable (based on low building to land value ratio and other considerations), partially -used (able
to be subdivided under current zoning), or constant (not likely to change over the next 20 years). Working with city staff,
LCG refined the set of vacant and redevelopable parcels to account for planned and proposed development, some changes
in land classification, and new development which has taken place since the County assessment. The revised set of vacant
and redevelopable parcels is shown below in Figure 4.
Figure 4. Vacant and Redevelopable Parcels in Port Orchard, 2024
Port Orchard'
LCA Parcel Classifications r
Sinclairin/el
Yard
Legend city
Port Orchard City Limits
Port Orchard UGA
Water Bodies __ - � ,}. ) � ✓'.,a'p a G _ �
�
Roads r � � er �-rY �
' w
State Highway - z _ AQ - 0 -
- Collector / ArterialI 4
S.i
ton
Locai Road
Parcel Status
- PARTIALLY UTILIZED
UNDERUTILIZED'_
- VACANT f .° y��nr
LMO
IX �' �•
SW BERRY LAKE RD � J
1
z
s�v iio�a ao
Cdy of Port
Next, development which has occurred since 2020 or is planned, proposed, or under construction was totaled. These new
housing units and jobs count towards the growth targets, since the baseline established by Kitsap County was for 2020. The
City provided permit data and information on pipeline units and planned development. The table below in Figure 5 shows
permits for single-family, duplex, and multifamily development since 2020. The western part of Port Orchard contains large
tracts platted for master -planned developments. The total number of platted lots and planned/permitted development in
this area is totaled in Figure 6. Note that the McCormick Village development will include single-family, middle housing (i.e.
duplexes/triplexes), and ADU units. Finally, there are an additional 1,393 apartments in the pipeline in Port Orchard, either
planned, proposed, or currently under construction. This totals 4,478 pending units.
Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I HB 1220 Land Capacity Analysis Methodology and Results DRAFT 2024-07-30 Page 3
Figure 5. Units Built in Port Orchard (Excluding McCormick West and Stetson), 2020-2024
Type Number of Units
Single Family 417
Duplex 2
Multifamily 505
Source: City of Port Orchard, Leland Consulting Group
Figure 6. Master Planned Development Expected in Port Orchard, 2020-2044
Area/Project
McCormick Village
Stetson Heights/Ridge
McCormick West
Single -Family Units
Middle Housing Units ADUs
55
74 55
412
0 0
1,545
0 0
Source: City of Port Orchard, Leland Consulting Group
These pending units were allocated to the income band that they will likely serve based on Commerce guidance, city input,
and market research. The majority of single-family units will serve higher -income households earning 120% AMI or above.
There are 66 units of single-family housing planned in Port Orchard that are being developed by nonprofit developers and
which will be sold below market rate. These units were assigned to the 80-120% AMI category. Planned middle housing
units such as duplexes and triplexes are also assumed to serve middle -income households earning 80-120%AMI, and ADUs
are assumed to serve lower -income households earning 0-80% AMI. This ADU assumption was made for the specific 55
ADUs being developed in McCormick Village, for which the developer has indicated in an interview that target rents are
between $1,600 and $1,900 per month. These rent levels would be affordable to households earning less than 80% of the
countywide AMI of $119,700. According to the Washington State Housing Finance Commission, a 1-bedroom unit at 80%
AMI would rent for $1,796 and a two -bedroom for $2,156. Port Orchard has seen very little additional ADU development in
recent years beyond this project, so further ADU capacity was not considered in this analysis.
Further research was conducted on average rents of apartments built over the past 10 years in Port Orchard using Costar
data, which found that studio and one -bedroom apartments are renting to households earning about 75% AMI, and two -
and three -bedroom apartments are renting to households earning 80-130% AMI, adjusted for household size as shown in
the table above in Figure 2. About 53% of Port Orchard's apartment stock are two- and three -bedroom units, and the other
47% are studio and one -bedroom units, according to Costar. Therefore, pending market -rate apartments were split
between the 0-80% AMI category and the 80-120% category based on this distribution of unit size. Finally, there have been
20 units constructed since 2020 using the City's former Multifamily Tax Exemption (MFTE) program, which required
affordability below 80% AMI. The total distribution of pending units by type and income band is shown below.
Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I HB 1220 Land Capacity Analysis Methodology and Results DRAFT 2024-07-30 Page 4
Figure 7. Port Orchard Pending and Planned Units by Income Band
Type Number of Units Income Band
Single -Family (Market -Rate)
2,363
120% +
Single -Family (Subsidized)
66
80-120%
Middle Housing
76
80-120%
Multifamily (0-1 bed)
892
0-80%
Multifamily (2+ bed)
1,006
80-120%
Multifamily (Subsidized)
20
0-80%
ADUs
55
0-80%
Source: City of Port Orchard, Costar, Leland Consulting Group
Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I HB 1220 Land Capacity Analysis Methodology and Results DRAFT 2024-07-30 Page 5
Critical Areas
Critical area reductions were calculated using the methodology developed for Kitsap County's Buildable Lands program and
used in Port Orchard's 2021 analysis. The following layers from Kitsap County's GIS database were combined and the
acreage of these combined areas that overlayed vacant, redevelopable, or partially -used parcels was multiplied by 75% and
then subtracted from available parcel acreage by zone:
• Streams
• Wetlands
• Water Bodies
• Hydric Soils
• Areas of High Geologic Hazard
Additionally, areas of moderate geologic hazard that overlayed vacant, redevelopable, or partially -used parcels were
multiplied by 50% and then subtracted by available parcel acreage by zone. These critical areas and areas of moderate
geologic hazard are shown below:
f7 i i_ A
Port Orchard
Critical Areas for LCAr
2024
Legend
Q Part Orchard City Limits
Port Orchard UGA
Water Bodies
Roads
— State Highway
— Collector / Arterial
LocalRoad
75%Reduction (Critical Areas)
�] 50% Reduction (Moderate Geohazard)
ra1E
Reduction Factors
Yard
City
Commerce's HB 1220 guidance indicates that jurisdictions should reduce the amount of vacant and redevelopable acreage
by a reasonable amount to account for land which may not be available for redevelopment due to the need for new right-
of-way, public space, stormwater facilities, or other dedications, as well as a reasonable estimate of the amount of land
Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I HB 1220 Land Capacity Analysis Methodology and Results DRAFT 2024-07-30 Page 6
that will remain unavailable due to the market. The reduction percentages by zone for each of these reductions are shown
below, which are unchanged from the reduction factors used in the 2021 Buildable Lands Analysis.
Figure 8. Reduction Factors used in Port Orchard Land Capacity Analysis
Future Roads /
Public
Market Factor
Market Factor
Zone
Right of Way
Facility
(Vacant)
(Redevelopable)
Greenbelt (GB)
20%
20%
35%
35%
Residential 1 (R1)
20%
20%
25%
30%
Residential 2 (R2)
20%
20%
35%
35%
Residential 3 (R3)
20%
20%
35%
40%
Residential 4 (R4)
20%
20%
45%
50%
Residential 6 (R6)
20%
20%
20%
30%
Neighborhood Mixed Use (NMU)
20%
20%
50%
50%
Business Professional Mixed Use (BPMU)
20%
20%
45%
50%
Downtown Mixed Use (DMU)
20%
20%
45%
50%
Gateway Mixed Use (GMU)
20%
20%
40%
45%
Commercial Mixed Use (CMU)
20%
20%
35%
40%
Commercial Corridor (CC)
20%
20%
40%
45%
Source: City of Port Orchard, Kitsap County, WA Department of Commerce
Finally, an assumed split of 15% commercial uses and 85% residential uses in mixed use zones was applied to the NMU,
BPMU, DMU, GMU, CMU, and CC zones due to expectations of a high share of future housing development in these zones
based on the permitting pipeline and recent development trends in Port Orchard. The gross area, critical areas, unavailable
lands, and net developable acres after the reductions discussed above are shown below:
Figure 9. Gross and Net Developable Acreage by Zone in Port Orchard
Zone
Gross
Vacant
Acres
Gross
Redevelopable
Acres
Critical
Areas
Unavailable Lands
(Future ROW,
Public Facility,
Market Factor,
Commercial Acres)
Net
Developable
Acres
Commercial
/ Residential
Split (MU
Zones)
GB
283.41
0.00
177.21
67.97
44.18
R1
41.42
90.06
65.60
42.16
30.18
R2
269.85
125.17
107.69
183.89
119.53
R3
90.58
66.82
46.10
71.23
44.59
R4
85.13
9.37
42.10
33.53
18.20
R6
0.00
0.97
0.00
0.62
0.43
NMU
0.41
1.91
1.24
0.35
0.35
15%
BPMU
14.88
16.27
10.68
6.27
6.83
15%
DMU
0.76
1.90
1.80
0.27
0.28
15%
GMU
0.76
1.26
1.12
0.25
0.32
15%
CMU
99.03
102.94
73.37
30.95
51.35
15%
CC
26.42
45.25
27.90
12.09
15.92
15%
Source: City of Port Orchard, Kitsap County, WA Department of Commerce
Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I HB 1220 Land Capacity Analysis Methodology and Results DRAFT 2024-07-30 Page 7
Density Assumptions
Having established the amount of available developable acreage, the next step in the analysis is to estimate the density at
which that acreage could redevelop. Following Commerce guidance, single-family zones are assumed to redevelop at the
maximum allowed density in the zoning code. Housing unit density assumptions for multifamily zones are based on the
density of recent development in that zone over the past five years based on City and Costar data and pipeline
development. The density assumptions for housing are shown in Figure 10 below. Note that these densities are substantially
similar to the assumptions used during the Buildable Lands process, with the exception of an increase in the R3 and CMU
zones, which have seen recent development at higher densities than assumed in the Buildable Lands process.
Figure 10. Residential Density Assumptions for Port Orchard LCA
Assumed Density
Zone
(DU/Ac)
GB
0.5
R1
7.0
R2
10.0
R3
32.0
R4
24.0
R6
8.0
N M U
16.0
BPMU
8.0
D M U
24.0
G M U
20.0
CMU
38.0
CC
4.0
Source: City of Port Orchard, Costar, Leland Consulting Group
Total Additional Land Capacity by Zone
The table below in Figure 11 shows Port Orchard's total land capacity for additional single-family and multifamily units by
zone on vacant, redevelopable, and partially -used parcels, a total of 4,565 units. These units will be broken down by the
income band that they can serve and then added to the pending units to determine total capacity in the next steps of this
analysis, discussed below.
Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I HB 1220 Land Capacity Analysis Methodology and Results DRAFT 2024-07-30 Page 8
Figure 11. Additional Housing Capacity in Port Orchard on Vacant, Redevelopable, and Partially -Used Parcels
Single Family
Multi Family
Residential Capacity
Net Acres
Units
Units
Greenbelt (GB)
44.18
22
0
Residential 1 (R1)
30.18
171
0
Residential 2 (R2)
119.53
1,073
0
Residential 3 (R3)
44.59
0
1,332
Residential 4 (R4)
18.20
0
380
Residential 6 (R6)
0.43
0
0
Subtotal
257.11
1,270
1,712
Net
Residential
Single Family
Multi Family
Mixed Use Capacity
Acres
Units
Units
Neighborhood Mixed Use (NMU)
0.29
0
2
Business Professional Mixed Use (BPMU)
5.80
0
21
Downtown Mixed Use (DMU)
0.24
0
2
Gateway Mixed Use (GMU)
0.27
0
3
Commercial Mixed Use (CMU)
43.65
0
1,544
Commercial Corridor (CC)
13.53
0
14
Subtotal
63.79
0
1,583
Total
320.90
1,270
3,295
Source: City of Port Orchard, Kitsop County, Heartland, Leland Consulting Group
Land Capacity by Income Band
The next step in this analysis is to break down the land capacity for future units into income bands that those units could
serve. Following Department of Commerce guidance, this is accomplished by first grouping zones into zone categories
based on the housing types that are allowed, and then grouping those categories by the income band they can potentially
serve. This classification is shown below.
Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I HB 1220 Land Capacity Analysis Methodology and Results DRAFT 2024-07-30 Page 9
Figure 12. Additional Housing Capacity in Port Orchard on Vacant, Redevelopable, and Partially -Used Parcels
Single Family
Single -Family Zone
Multifamily
Multifamily Zone
Residential Capacity
Unit Capacity
Category
Unit Capacity
Category
Greenbelt (GB)
22
Low Density
0
Residential 1 (R1)
171
Low Density
0
Residential 2 (R2)
1,073
Moderate Density
0
Residential 3 (R3)
0
Moderate Density
1,332
Moderate Density
Residential 4 (R4)
0
Low Density
380
Low -Rise
Residential 6 (R6)
3
Moderate Density
0
Low -Rise
Single Family
Single -Family Zone
Multifamily
Multifamily Zone
Mixed Use Capacity
Unit Capacity
Category
Unit Capacity
Category
Neighborhood Mixed Use
n/a
n/a
2
Moderate Density
(NMU)
Business Professional Mixed Use
n/a
n/a
21
Moderate Density
(BPMU)
Downtown Mixed Use (DMU)
n/a
n/a
2
Moderate Density
Gateway Mixed Use (GMU)
n/a
n/a
1
Low -Rise
Commercial Mixed Use (CMU)
n/a
n/a
1,544
Low -Rise
Commercial Corridor (CC)
n/a
n/a
14
Moderate Density
Source: City of Port Orchard, Kitsap County, Heartland, Leland Consulting Group
Next, the combined capacity in each zone category is aggregated and each category is assigned to an assumed
affordability level, based on the lowest potential income level which can be served in that zone category, per Commerce
guidance and supplemented with the analysis of Port Orchard's current rents discussed previously in this report. The
aggregated zone capacity and assumed affordability levels are shown below.
Figure 13. Additional Housing Capacity in Port Orchard on Vacant, Redevelopable, and Partially -Used Parcels
HB 1220 Zone Typical Housing Types Allowed
Category
Low Density Detached single-family homes
Moderate Density Townhomes, duplex, triplex, quadplex
Low -Rise Walk-up apartments, condominiums (2-4 stories)
Mid -Rise Apartments, condominiums (4+ stories)
Additional Assumed Affordability
Unit Capacity
Level for Capacity
Analysis (% AMI)
193
120% +
2,446
80-120%
1,925
0-80%
0
0-80%
Source. WA Department of Commerce, City of Port Orchard, Kitsap County, Heartland, Leland Consulting Group
Finally, pending units are added back in to the additional land capacity shown above and the total capacity and pending
units are compared with the 2020-2044 aggregated housing needs for each income band from Kitsap County. The results
are shown below in Figure 14. As shown, Port Orchard has sufficient capacity to meet projected housing needs at all income
bands through 2044.
Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I HB 1220 Land Capacity Analysis Methodology and Results DRAFT 2024-07-30 Page 10
Figure 14. Port Orchard Housing Targets by Income Band, 2020-2044
Income Band
Housing
Needs
Aggregated
Housing Needs
Pending
Units
Remaining
Needs
Total
Capacity
Surplus
0-30%AMI PSH
414
2,848
967
11881
1,925
44
0-30% AMI Non PSH
944
30-50% AMI
810
50-80% AMI
680
80-100% AMI
351
1 696
1,148
-452
2,446
2,898
100-120% AMI
345
120% AMI +
1,399
1,399
2,363
-964
193
1,157
Total
4,943
4,943
4,478
465
4,565
4,100
Source: WA Department of Commerce, City of Port Orchard, Kitsap county, Heartland, Leland Consulting Group
Land Capacity for Emergency Housing
RCW 36.70A.070(2)(c) requires that, in addition to land capacity for permanent housing, jurisdictions also show sufficient
land capacity for their allocations of emergency housing as part of their comprehensive plan updates. This section outlines
the methodology and results of this analysis, which is based on the Emergency Housing Land Capacity Analysis Option B
(assumed density method) as outlined on pp. 44-48 of the WA Department of Commerce's "Guidance for Updating Your
Housing Element" (August 2023).2
The use table in Port Orchard Municipal Code Chapter 20.39.040 allows for "indoor emergency housing," and "indoor
emergency shelter' in the NMU, CMU, DMU, CC, and CH zones. "Indoor emergency housing" is defined as "temporary
indoor accommodations for individuals or families who are homeless or at imminent risk of becoming homeless that are
intended to address the basic health, food, clothing, and personal hygiene needs of individuals or families. Indoor emergency
housing may or may not require occupants to enter into a lease or occupancy agreement." "Indoor emergency shelter" is
defined as "a facility that provides a temporary indoor shelter for individuals or families who are currently homeless. An indoor
emergency shelter may not require occupants to enter into a lease or an occupancy agreement. Indoor emergency shelter
facilities may include day and warming centers that do not provide overnight accommodations."
Per Commerce guidance, this analysis considers parcels in the NMU, CMU, DMU, CC, and CH zones which were classified as
"Vacant" or "Underutilized" in the overall land capacity analysis as detailed above. Port Orchard does not have any intensity
or spacing requirements for emergency housing which would limit the number of these potential parcels that could be
used. Port Orchard also does not have any emergency housing development in the pipeline. After removing critical area
acreage as detailed previously, the total net area in these five zones available for emergency housing is 73.9 acres.
This acreage is then multiplied by a density assumption for potential emergency shelters, measured in beds per acre. The
density assumption is based on a combination of prototypes drawn from the Commerce guidebook which most closely
match staff expectations for the types of potential emergency housing that could be developed in Port Orchard under
current zoning. Details and densities on the prototypes used and the percentage of each prototype used in generating the
average density assumption of 29 beds per acre are shown below.
z https://deptofcommerce.box.com/s/ld9d5l7g5O9r389fOmipowh8isipirlh
Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I HB 1220 Land Capacity Analysis Methodology and Results DRAFT 2024-07-30 Page 11
Figure 15. Density Prototypes for Port Orchard Emergency Shelter Land Capacity Analysis
Name
Location
Context Zoning
Details
Beds
Density
Acres (beds/acre)
Percentage
Tri-City Union
Pasco
Urban Light Industrial
1 story, parking, open space
162
6.30 25
45%
Gospel Mission
North King County
1 story former nursing home,
Shoreline
Suburban Mixed Business
60
2.66 23
40%
Enhanced Shelter
parking, open space
3 story former hotel with
The Gateway
Seattle
Urban Commercial 1-55
135
2.25 60
15%
parking
Average Density for LCA: 29 100%
Source: WA Department of Commerce, City of Port Orchard, Leland Consulting Group
Applying this density assumption to the available acreage by zone results in a capacity for 2,174 beds on vacant and
redevelopable parcels in zones where emergency housing is allowed in Port Orchard, as broken down below in Figure 16.
Figure 16. Emergency Shelter Capacity by Zone in Port Orchard, 2020-2044
Emergency
Net
Beds /
Shelter Bed
Zone
Acres
Acre
Capacity
NMU
0.3
29
9
CMU
43.7
29
1,285
DMU
0.3
29
8
CC
13.5
29
398
CH
16.1
29
474
TOTAL
2,174
Source: WA Department of Commerce, City of Port Orchard, Leland Consulting Group
Port Orchard's target for emergency housing is 209 beds, as shown in the target allocations above in Figure 1. Therefore,
the city has a surplus capacity of 1,965 shelter beds for the 2020-2044 planning period, as shown below in Figure 17.
Figure 17. Emergency Shelter Capacity and Target in Port Orchard, 2020-2044
Total
Emergency Total Emergency
Shelter Need Shelter Capacity Surplus/
(Beds) (Beds) Deficit
209 2,174 1,965
Source: Kitsap County, WA Department of Commerce, City of Port Orchard, Leland Consulting Group
Port Orchard Comprehensive Plan I HB 1220 Land Capacity Analysis Methodology and Results DRAFT 2024-07-30 Page 12